Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
